CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-26T12:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-26T12:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17833/-1
CME Note: The CME appears wider in STEREO A images than in SOHO images. The source of this CME is an eruption associated with a C1.6 class flare that peaked at 11:24Z from AR12871. The eruption started around 11:20Z and exhibited potential deflection within the field of view as well as opening field lines in the SW of SDO/AIA 171.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-30T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17835/1 Model Inputs: 2021-09-26T12:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=29.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=427.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2021-09-26T20:22Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-09-30T06:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=2 (kp)180=3 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-09-29T18:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210926_202200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 81.72 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M Office) on 2021-09-26T20:17Z
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